Bad Forecast logo — the words BAD FORECAST in bold distressed type with a red mushroom-cloud storm behind them and a paper receipt curling down like a funnel.

Big Weather. Bigger Costs. - BADFORECAST.COM - A Project of Extreme Weather Survivors

US Weather Costs banner — "Billion-Dollar Disasters, Every Other Week" above the words US WEATHER COSTS, over a faint red map of the United States dotted with dollar signs.

US Weather Costs

$538 million in Q3 catastrophe losses at Travelers

•

Oct 29, 2026

US Weather Costs

$705 million in Q3 catastrophe losses at Chubb

•

Oct 29, 2026

US Weather Costs

$198 million in Q3 catastrophe losses at The Hartford

•

Oct 29, 2026


Utilities

Up to $456 million in interim rate recovery for PG&E

•

Oct 29, 2026

Utilities

$329.17 per megawatt-day: PJM's data center price

•

Oct 29, 2026

Utilities

$4.5 billion in rate requests, a third-quarter record

•

Oct 29, 2026



States of Emergency

Florida: Citizens is down to 216,577 policies

•

Oct 29, 2026

States of Emergency

Indiana: $157.3 million to households after August's derecho

•

Oct 29, 2026

States of Emergency

Illinois: $27.6 million in damage, "not warranted"

•

Oct 29, 2026

States of Emergency

Texas: the state pays 2% of its own disaster budget

•

Oct 29, 2026

Storm Receipts header — the words STORM RECEIPTS in white distressed type on black background beside a small mushroom-cloud storm with a receipt spilling out of it

WHEN THE BILL COMES DUE
ISAIAS HIT AT 105 MPH. THE
COSTS ARE STILL COMING ASHORE.
Isaias hit Destin at 105 mph on 9 October, the first hurricane to reach the US since Milton. The modelers say $1 billion to $4.5 billion insured. AM Best calls it an "earnings event." Three weeks on, the counties have their federal declaration. The households are still under review.

$3.5 billion: Moody's best estimate for Isaias

Moody's RMS

62,295 Isaias claims in Florida, 39.5% closed

Florida Office of Insurance Regulation

$237 million asked. Counties approved, households pending

Florida Phoenix; FEMA; WUWF

$71.7 million in private damage in Pensacola alone

FOX10; WEAR


Big Bad Number: over $50 billion in disasters for 2026, Isaias not yet counted. 21 disasters of over a billion dollars each. An engraved balance scale: the heavy pan holds a pile of angry storm clouds, the light pan a small stack of coins. 21 billion-dollar weather disasters hit the United States through September, $50.3 billion in all. The costliest was the 23 to 29 April storms across the central and southern states, $7.8 billion. The deadliest was January's winter storm, 171 deaths and $4.5 billion. A scarier number? Hurricane Isaias is not on the list. Yet. Source: Climate Central, Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, events list as of September 2026.

Forecast Down banner graphic in bold white distressed type. Depicts a red rubber duck floating blissfully ignorant. Tagline says FINE. EVERYTHING IS FINE
Tides Wide Shut. This is fine meme, Miami Beach version. An older man in a red cap and a flowered shirt sits at a cafe table on a flooded Ocean Drive, art deco hotels behind him, and says This is fine. Panel captions: 2025, $150 million in federal flood upgrades pulled. 2026, money reinstated but also under negotiation. The water rises panel by panel until only his face shows beside the Colony Hotel sign. This week Miami had its highest king tide since the gauge went live in 1994. It ran over three local flood barriers. $150 million was allocated to fix them but the money was pulled in 2025. It was reinstated this year but is also somehow still under negotiation. Meanwhile, South Floridians got a taste of what's coming for their ground floors and their undercarriages. Tampa Bay Times, 27 October 2026; South Florida Water Management District.
Weather Is Coming banner — An emergency flashlight throws a wide beam illuminating the words WEATHER IS COMING. The tagline underneath reads “It gets worse. And soon.”

Weather Is Coming

$92 billion: the world's insured losses through September

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$29.9 billion: China's disaster losses, nine months

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$8.5 billion: Europe's drought, $5 billion of it in France

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$3.7 billion: August hail, Switzerland's costliest on record

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$3.15 billion: July's European hail, estimate raised

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$2.6 billion: Canada's third-costliest summer for insurers

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$483 million: Cyclone Arnab's first tally in Andhra Pradesh

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$478 million: Ontario's September storms, estimate raised

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$312 million more for Thailand's flooded households

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$91 million: Istanbul's record rain reaches the insurers

•

Oct 29, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$451 billion: Allianz's price on the 2027 El Niño

•

Oct 7, 2026

Weather Is Coming

$44 billion insured of $112 billion worldwide, first half

•

Oct 7, 2026

Load more

INCOMING FRONT

Incoming Front: El Niño En Fuego. An engraved kettle shaped like the globe, the Pacific facing forward, boiling over with steam pouring from the spout, with the words EL NIÑO EN FUEGO beneath.

Oct 29, 2026

•

2 min read

Incoming Front: El Niño En Fuego

The strongest El Niño in NOAA's records is already in the coffee, the canal and the corn.

Incoming Front: The Claim Coin Flip. A coin spins between two insurance claim forms, one stamped not paid and one stamped paid.

Oct 15, 2026

•

1 min read

Incoming Front: The Claim Coin Flip

A record year for property insurers. 44% of home insurance claims closed with no payment.

Breaking the Mold. A red woodcut of a flood-damaged living room, black mold creeping down the wall above an armchair, with the words BREAKING THE MOLD.

Oct 7, 2026

•

1 min read

Incoming Front: Breaking the Mold

The water leaves in a day. The bill takes years.

The full front

Executive Editor: Sierra Lindsey Kos Editor: Jess McIntosh

background

GET THE RECEIPTS. SUBSCRIBE.

Subscribe to BAD FORECAST, the regular ledger of what extreme weather is actually costing America.

Bad Forecast

Archive

Search

© 2026 Extreme Weather Survivors.
beehiivPowered by beehiiv