NOAA puts an 83% chance on this El Niño reaching a level that "would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950." Here is what it has already done to the bills, and what the winter outlook puts on deck.
The ocean: +2.5 degrees C is the Niño 3.4 anomaly in NOAA's 26 October weekly update, and NOAA puts an 83% chance on the October to December three-month index reaching +2.5 or more. (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-26)
The coffee: 7.1% is how much coffee prices rose in US stores in the 12 months to September, against 1.8% for all food at home. December arabica settled at $3.157 a pound on 19 October, a one-month high, with exchange stocks near a 27-year low, a record Brazilian crop on the way, and El Niño the threat traders see to next year's crop. (BLS CPI, 2026-10-14; Rio Times, 2026-10-19; Hedgepoint, 2026-09-21; Perfect Daily Grind, 2026-10-09)
The canal: $500 per 20-foot container is CMA CGM's Panama Canal surcharge on Asia to US East and Gulf Coast cargo since 10 September, after the canal cut daily transits from 36 to 32 ahead of an El Niño drought. The cap rose to 33 on 15 October. About $270 billion of US container trade a year goes through the canal, roughly 40% of the national total. (CMA CGM via IndexBox, 2026-08-18; Panama Canal Authority, 2026-09-28; Maritime Executive, 2026-09-28; Newsweek, 2026-08-24)
The harvest: 44% of the US corn crop was harvested by 18 October against a five-year average of 52%, after Lincoln, Nebraska's wettest September on record. USDA's meteorologist: "there is a role that El Niño is playing in all of this western Corn Belt wetness." (USDA Crop Progress, 2026-10-19; Agri-Pulse, 2026-10-21)
The winter: A wet winter is most likely across the southern tier from California to Florida and up the East Coast in NOAA's December to February outlook. $2 billion to $3 billion is a modeled range for California flood and mudslide losses this winter, against about $500 million in a typical year. (NOAA Winter Outlook, 2026-10-15; Climate X and Climate Central via Bloomberg and Claims Journal, 2026-09-28)
The heating bill: $640 is the federal forecast for the average natural gas heating bill this winter, down 9%, with heating oil at $2,115, up 21%. The base case warns a strong El Niño could push temperatures well off it. In the 2015-16 El Niño winter, residential electricity demand fell 6%. (EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, 2026-10-06; EIA data and EPRI via Newsweek, 2026-10-19)
TLDR: The strongest El Niño in NOAA's records is already in the coffee, the canal and the corn. The winter it brings is wet from California to Florida, and the last one this size took $5.7 trillion out of the global economy over five years. (Dartmouth, 2023)
