Bad Forecast
BAD FORECAST 006 – A project of Extreme Weather Survivors – Big Weather. Bigger Costs.

STORM RECEIPTS
WHAT A NEAR MISS COSTS

Two hurricanes came at Hawaii in three weeks. Neither landed but even a sideswipe dropped more than 40 inches of rain. The both also dropped tremendous costs. Hawaii has asked DC to skip the damage assessment and declare a disaster anyway. While no official figure exists for the double hurricane cost, the four numbers below show how costly even near misses can be now.

 

1. Nearly $50 million counted in one county. $3 to 5 billion statewide, says AccuWeather.
Hawaii County's preliminary accounting of Lala, which its mayor says could approach $100 million, against a modelled total damage and economic loss estimate (Hawaii News Now, 2026-09-02 | AccuWeather, 2026-08-17)

 

2. $400 million in damage from Lowell alone, per the Governor.
Reported from his Kauai visit. His written request that day carries no figure (Hawaii News Now, 2026-09-09)

 

3. $10 million spending cap, suspended four days before Lowell arrived.
The state's single-emergency spending limit, lifted by proclamation (Office of the Governor of Hawaii, 2026-09-03)

 

4. 33,000 of 36,000 accounts dark. Ninety percent of Kauai.
Kauai Island Utility Cooperative, reported in the state's federal request (Office of the Governor of Hawaii, 2026-09-09)

US WEATHER COSTS

Billion-Dollar Disasters - Every Other Week

 

$117 billion of the world's $171 billion in average annual insured catastrophe losses is now American. Verisk's updated global model puts the US share at 68%, with severe thunderstorm the single largest peril worldwide. (Verisk, 2026-09-01)

 

$6.8 billion from one week of storms across the central and southern states in April is the costliest American weather event of the year so far. The Central and Southern Severe Storm ran roughly 23 to 29 April. (Climate Central, 2026-07-29)

 

$31.9 billion and 183 dead across twelve billion-dollar disasters in the first half of this year. That count ranks fifth for the most January to June events since records began in 1980. (Climate Central, 2026-07-29)

Incoming Front, Turbulence Surcharge: a red engraving of an airport under storm, with the Incoming Front tower logo.

Two American airlines have now told the Securities and Exchange Commission that weather is costing them money. Not a risk-factor note. A figure for shareholders.

 

The bill: American booked "an estimated $320 million revenue impact from winter storms" in a single quarter, after the largest weather-related disruption in its history. JetBlue told the SEC that severe airport-weather days across the National Airspace System rose more than 40% against the prior three-summer average. (American 8-K, 2026-04-23 | JetBlue 8-K, 2026-09-10)

 

The ground: Brookings mapped 145 US hub airports. Twenty-four flood at one foot of sea level rise, eleven of them losing runway. Their own conclusion: "We simply know too little about the range of needs and costs in the airport adaptation space." (Brookings Metro, 2023-03-01)

 

The price: SFO's shoreline defence went from $58 million sized for 11 inches of sea level rise to $587.1 million sized for 36, and $1.5 billion once the borrowing is paid. In Alaska, runways sinking into thawing permafrost run $3.4 billion by midcentury against $220 million on a Paris-aligned path. (San Francisco Examiner, 2019-09-11 | Alaska Beacon, 2023-02-16)

 

TLDR: Airlines can tell you what weather cost them last quarter. Nobody can tell you what it costs to keep the runways above water, or out of the thawing ground, or the planes flying through unprecedented skies.

STATES OF EMERGENCY

American Fires Edition

 

Oregon: $125.6 million and 373,927 acres. 33 structures gone. The Rowe Creek Complex is 99% contained and still accruing cost. (National Interagency Coordination Center, 2026-09-15)

 

Texas: 157 structures destroyed near Palo Pinto, the largest structure loss on the national fire report. The Ross fire is 88% contained across 90,400 acres. Its suppression cost is listed as not reported. (National Interagency Coordination Center, 2026-09-15)

 

Montana: $34.3 million spent, and containment is not expected until 31 October. Sand Creek has burned 35,520 acres and destroyed four structures. (National Interagency Coordination Center, 2026-09-15)

 

Hawaii: $350 million approved for wildfire work. Customers pay it off as debt. Regulators approved $270 million of capital and $80 million of operating spending in June, with securitization planned to spread the bill. (Hawaii PUC, via Hawaiian Electric, 2026-06-25)

The Big Bad Number: $315 million from one storm. It buried the Ozarks hailstorm record. Two engraved neighbourhood scenes side by side. On the left, a row of houses with hailstones scattered on the ground, $12.5 million, Marshfield, 26 May 2024, the previous costliest hailstorm in the Ozarks. On the right, the same row with one house crushed under a hailstone the size of a building, $315 million, Springfield, 28 April 2026.

UTILITIES

What's Straining the Grid and Our Wallets

 

14 days without power in Gary, Indiana. Its utility won a $257 million rate increase last year. An 11 August derecho knocked out more than 60% of NIPSCO's service territory. (NBC Chicago, 2026-08-19)

 

94.9 million shut-off notices in one year. Sent to residential electricity customers in 2024. October was the heaviest month at 9.0 million, June the lightest at 7.2 million. (US Energy Information Administration, 2026-04)

 

$100 million disasters, now written into CenterPoint's loan covenants as a foreseeable event. New credit facilities totalling $4.6 billion loosen a debt covenant whenever storm restoration is reasonably likely to exceed $100 million in a twelve-month period. (CenterPoint Energy, 2026-09-09)

Forecast Down. Fine. Everything is fine.
Mile High and Dry. A two-buttons meme. The buttons read data center sprinklers and save water during drought. Below, a sweating figure labelled City of Denver, its head and shoulders built from city buildings.

Weather is coming, and it keeps getting more expensive. Track the totals at BadForecast.com

Executive Editor: Sierra Lindsey Kos · Editor: Jess McIntosh