War closes the Strait of Hormuz today; weather will close it tomorrow — in the lane that carries 20% of the world's oil. Right now no insurer will write a standard tanker policy, with war-risk premiums up 300% — from $40K to $1.2 million a voyage. And that's before the climate bill: Arabian Sea rapid-intensification storms have doubled since 2013, on seas running 1.2–1.4°C hot. Gas is already $4.10 a gallon, up 30% in five weeks — and the climate premium doesn't reset when the war ends. And there's no detour: no pipeline replaces the fifth of the world's oil that funnels through this single lane.

TLDR: The war premium resets. The climate premium compounds.