BAD FORECAST 003 – A project of Extreme Weather Survivors – Big Weather. Bigger Costs.
STORM RECEIPTS
TEXAS FLOODS: THEN AND NOW
On July 4, 2025 the Guadalupe tore through Kerr County, TX. It cost over a billion in damage and 20x more in economic loss. A year later, the river matched, and at some gauges topped, last year's crest. The 2026 bill isn't in yet, but it probably isn't smaller.
1. Cost so far: $1.1 billion, barely 12% insured
$1.1B in residential building damage, with NFIP expected to cover as little as ~$135M; fewer than 2% of Kerr County homes carried flood coverage. (Cotality; Moody's, 2025-07-23)
2. The yardstick: last year's total ran $18–22 billion
$1.1B in direct damage and up to $18–22B in total economic loss; this year ran heavier and wider, and no 2026 estimate is out yet, but it isn't smaller. (AccuWeather, 2025-07-07)
3. Big Oil pocketed 14X the flood's bill in one quarter
Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP booked ~$15.9B in combined net profit in Q1 2026. (Company Q1 earnings reports, Apr–May 2026)
4. Your premium's up, and so is their income: $135.9 billion
Avg US home premium ~$3,057/yr (up 46% since 2021) while P&C insurers booked a record $135.9B in net income in 2025. (Insurance Journal, 2026-03-18; Business Insurance, 2026-04-16)
5. Lobbying: $150 million to keep Congress from asking
Oil & gas spent $149.8M lobbying DC in 2025, and NFIP, which fewer than 2% of Kerr County homes carried, is $22.5B in debt. (OpenSecrets; CRS; Moody's)
US WEATHER COSTS
Billion-Dollar Disasters - Every Other Week
23 storms, zero hurricanes, $115 billion anyway. 2025 was our first no-hurricane-landfall year since 2015, and we still had 23 billion-dollar disasters totaling $115B. (Climate Central, 2026-01-08)
Washington froze $17 billion in disaster aid. The administration held up ~$17B in federal disaster funds, plus $1.3B+ in mitigation money, heading into 2026. (New York Times, 2026-01-15)
FEMA's piggy bank hits empty: a $16 billion hole. The Disaster Relief Fund is below its $3B trigger, running ~$15.9B short at the FY26 end. (FEMA, 2026-04-29)
Is it expensive? Hail yeah. $22 billion by mid-June. Severe convective storm insured losses hit $22B by 2026-06-18, the 11th straight year over $20B. (Gallagher Re, 2026-06-18)
UTILITIES
What's Straining the Grid and Our Wallets
Summer of sweat: cooling bills hit a record $792. Up 10.5% year over year; the South Atlantic is up 12.8%. (NEADA, June 2026)
The $25 billion tab nobody can pay. One in six households is behind on the utility bill; Americans' total utility debt reaches $25B by year-end. (NEADA / Moneywise, June 2026)
Server farms send you the bill: $23 billion and counting. Data-center demand drove $23B in customer price increases through 2028. (Fortune / PJM monitor, 2026-07-14)
The AI tax on your thermostat: $30 billion a year by 2030. The fossil-heavy data-center build-out adds an estimated $30B/yr to US bills by 2030. (Forbes / Energy Innovation, 2026-06-29)
This week (July 14–16, 2026) Canadian wildfire smoke, from 800+ active fires, triggered air-quality alerts across 17+ US states. And for 100M+ Americans, researchers have priced what a fire 1,000 miles away costs US households.
The paychecks: ~$125B a year drained from US paychecks (~2% of labor income); a heavy-smoke day cuts quarterly earnings ~0.1%. (CBS / NBER, 2023)
The health bill: ~$16B a year in US health costs from wildfire smoke, alongside an $820B/yr fossil-fuel-pollution health bill. (NRDC, 2021)
The body count: California smoke caused 52,500–55,700 deaths from 2008–2018, a $432–456B toll, and researchers flagged the 2023 East Coast smoke as proof non-fire regions pay too. (UCLA / Science Advances, 2024)
TLDR: The smoke starts in Canada. The bill, tens of billions a year in lost wages and healthcare, is paid by American households.
EXTREME WEATHER SURVIVOR STORIES
His cost: Adial Carrizales lost the RV he shared with his three sons in Kerrville, TX. Nearly everything they owned was a total loss. With no renters or flood insurance, recovery leaned on FEMA, community donations, and mutual aid.
His story: The 2025 Guadalupe River Flood came fast. Firefighters banged on his door after midnight when the water rose neck high through the RV park. Donations and aid eventually helped him furnish a new home and steady his boys. He fears the next flood, and wants stronger warning systems reaching families before it hits.
STATES OF EMERGENCY
America: From Sea to Rising Sea
Texas: $54 billion needed, $669 million funded. The state flood plan needs $54B; lawmakers funded about 1% of it. (Texas Public Radio)
California: $732 million still stuck. Approved LA wildfire FEMA funds, but only $37M had been paid as of May 2026. (Gov. Newsom, 2026-05-08)
Washington: $36 million denied. FEMA rejected Washington's mitigation funds after December floods. (WA State Standard, 2026-04-24)
Colorado: $15 million and climbing. Suppression on the Aspen Acres Fire, the nation's top firefighting priority, topped $15M by early July as 850+ homes burned. (The Center Square, 2026-07-02)
Weather is coming, and it keeps getting more expensive. Track the totals at BadForecast.com
